Per il week-end, un’interessante analisi della variabilità decadale della nuvolosità in chiave riscaldamento/raffreddamento del Pianeta dalle pagine del blog di Judith Curry.
Questa la conclusione di un saggio che va letto per intero e in chiave non necessariamente scettica. Semplice, si fa per dire, spiegazione di quel che succede.
All global warming in the past 50 years, the period in which the IPCC say most warming occurred because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, happened between 1977 and 1998. This is exactly the same period as the last warm El Niño dominated Pacific decadal mode. In the instrumental record, the trajectory of global surface temperature mirrors the Pacific Ocean states. Cool to the late 1970’s, warm to 1998 and cool since. Sea surface temperature is negatively correlated to marine stratiform cloud. Multiple satellite data sources show that over most of the period of warming there was planetary cooling in the infrared band where greenhouse gases were expected to result in warming – and strong planetary warming as a result of less cloud reflecting less sunlight back into space. As a testable hypothesis, the current cool La Niña mode of the Pacific decadal pattern will lead to increased cloud cover and global cooling over another decade or three. After that, in a chaotic climate, it is anyone’s guess.
Questo è il link: Decadal Variability of clouds, by Robert Ellison.
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